Quantum computing predictions, checked

Each prediction below has a date when it can be checked. When that date comes, its verdict goes here and under the original wording where it was made, whether it turned out right or wrong.

8 predictions · 0 right · 0 wrong · 8 still open

Still open, soonest first

Bitcoin will not have switched on BIP-360 or any quantum-safe signatures by the end of 2027.
Check at the end of 2027
Made October 2026 in Is a Ledger or Trezor wallet quantum safe?
No quantum computer will factor 21 with Shor's algorithm before the end of 2028, without a shortcut that relies on already knowing the answer.
Check at the end of 2028
Made October 2026 in How well does a real quantum computer work?
WhatsApp and Messenger will add the same protection years before a quantum computer can break their keys.
Check at the end of 2028
Made October 2026 in Can quantum computers read my text messages?
By the end of 2028, more than 90% of the traffic people send to Cloudflare will use post-quantum encryption.
Check at the end of 2028
Made October 2026 in Are you already using post-quantum encryption?
No quantum computer will solve a problem someone needed solved, faster or cheaper than an ordinary computer, before the end of 2028.
Check at the end of 2028
Made October 2026 in Are quantum computers real yet?
No quantum computer will break a real encryption key, of the size banks or Bitcoin use, before 2032.
Check at the start of 2032
Made October 2026 in How close are quantum computers to breaking encryption?
In 2035, some large banks will still depend on keys a quantum computer could break.
Check at the end of 2035
Made October 2026 in What would Q-Day mean for your bank?
No medicine approved before 2040 will have depended on a quantum computer for a calculation ordinary computers couldn't do.
Check at the start of 2040
Made October 2026 in When will quantum computers help make medicines?